Revenue
$17.20M
-4.4% vs budget · $800k shortfall
Meridian Services Group · September 2026 close
Monthly board dashboard.
Understand the earnings gap, protect liquidity, and make the next operating decision.
Fictional worked example. All figures are illustrative; no client data or actual investment results. Meridian Services Group models approximately $211M in full-year 2026 revenue under the Base outlook. Dataset MERIDIAN-BOARD-2026 covers the September close and January–September actuals, followed by Q4 scenarios. It is independent of the other companies and datasets in this collection.
Choose the Q4 outlook
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Meridian Services Group · MERIDIAN-BOARD-2026. September actuals are fixed. Showing the Base outlook for October–December 2026.
EBITDA
$2.16M
-25.0% vs budget · 12.6% margin
Unrestricted cash
$13.60M
$5.60M above $8M policy minimum
Gross leverage
3.18×
$96.00M debt ÷ $30.16M TTM EBITDA · Oct 2025–Sep 2026
Management reading
Margin is the immediate operating issue.
September revenue missed budget by 4.4%, while EBITDA missed by 25.0%. The $440k delivery labor overrun is the largest adverse EBITDA driver. Cash closed at $13.60M; the Base outlook ends December with a $6.00M buffer above the $8M cash floor.
01 · Performance
A small revenue miss. A larger earnings gap.
September and January–September 2026
USD · amounts rounded for display
| Metric | Actual | Budget | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.20M | $18.00M | −$800k |
| EBITDA | $2.16M | $2.88M | −$720k |
| EBITDA margin | 12.6% | 16.0% | -3.4 pts |
| YTD revenue | $157.12M | $159.84M | −$2.72M |
| YTD EBITDA | $22.72M | $24.64M | −$1.92M |
Revenue budget: $18.00M; direct delivery cost: $10.80M; overhead: $4.32M. Actual: $17.20M, $10.88M, and $4.16M, respectively. EBITDA is revenue less those operating costs.
EBITDA bridge
Budget → September actual · adverse movements are labeled negative
See bridge calculations
| Movement | EBITDA effect |
|---|---|
| Budget EBITDA | $2.88M |
| Revenue volume$600k less revenue × 40% budget contribution margin | −$240k |
| Price / mix$200k revenue reduction with no modeled cost offset | −$200k |
| Delivery laborLabor cost above the volume-adjusted budget | −$440k |
| OverheadOverhead $160k below budget | +$160k |
| Actual EBITDA | $2.16M |
02 · Q4 outlook
Base: the next three months.
Current outlook: modest trading recovery; collections remain slow.
Closed actualQ4 forecastBudget
Q4 forecast revenue$53.60M
Q4 forecast EBITDA$7.60M
December cash$14.00M
December gross leverage3.13×
December cash and debt exclude further revolver draws. December leverage uses January–December 2026 EBITDA: nine actual months plus the selected Q4 forecast.
See monthly chart data and forecast assumptions
| Month | Basis | EBITDA | Budget |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | Actual | $2.68M | $2.72M |
| May 2026 | Actual | $2.72M | $2.80M |
| Jun 2026 | Actual | $2.80M | $2.88M |
| Jul 2026 | Actual | $2.56M | $2.88M |
| Aug 2026 | Actual | $2.36M | $2.88M |
| Sep 2026 | Actual | $2.16M | $2.88M |
| Oct 2026 | Base forecast | $2.36M | $2.96M |
| Nov 2026 | Base forecast | $2.52M | $3.04M |
| Dec 2026 | Base forecast | $2.72M | $3.12M |
| Cash movement | USD |
|---|---|
| September closing cash | $13.60M |
| Q4 EBITDA | +$7.60M |
| Receivables movement | −$960k |
| Payables movement | +$480k |
| Cash interest | −$2.16M |
| Cash taxes | −$1.32M |
| Capital expenditure | −$2.04M |
| Debt amortization | −$1.20M |
| December cash before further borrowing | $14.00M |
December gross leverage = $94.80M gross debt ÷ $30.32M January–December 2026 EBITDA. The denominator combines nine closed months with three forecast months. No additional revolver draw is included in forecast debt or cash.
03 · Cash & capital
Working capital absorbs the earnings.
September close · no cash netting or EBITDA addbacks
| Movement | USD |
|---|---|
| Opening cash | $15.20M |
| September EBITDA | +$2.16M |
| Receivables increase | −$1.76M |
| Payables increase | +$400k |
| Cash interest | −$720k |
| Cash taxes | −$440k |
| Capital expenditure | −$840k |
| Debt amortization | −$400k |
| Closing cash | $13.60M |
Liquidity available at September close
Cash
$13.60M
$13.60M
Undrawn revolver
$12.00M
$12.00M
- Total liquidity
- $25.60M
- Debt: term / revolver drawn
- $92.00M / $4.00M
- Receivable days / target
- 42 / 35
- Cash tied up above DSO target
- $4.01M
The $16M revolver is assumed fully available less $4.00M drawn. Availability is illustrative; no borrowing-base, covenant, or legal restrictions are modeled. The $8M minimum is an internal cash policy, not a lender covenant. Collection opportunity uses September sales ÷ 30 × seven excess days; it is not booked cash.
04 · Initiative delivery
Benefits must survive costs to achieve.
January–September 2026
Fictional realized benefits versus plan
| Initiative / owner | Gross plan | Gross realized | Actual cost | Net realized | Net gap vs plan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pricing disciplineCommercial lead | $3.60M | $2.72M | $400k | $2.32M | $920k |
| Delivery utilizationCOO | $2.40M | $1.52M | $640k | $880k | $1.00M |
| Vendor consolidationProcurement lead | $1.68M | $1.20M | $280k | $920k | $440k |
| Total | $7.68M | $5.44M | $1.32M | $4.12M | $2.36M |
$4.12M net realized benefit
$6.48M net planned benefit
63.6% of net plan delivered
Gross benefits are incremental operating improvements against an agreed counterfactual. Net benefits subtract expensed costs to achieve. Benefits and costs are already included in reported EBITDA; they are not added again to the EBITDA bridge or forecast.
See planned costs and evidence basis
| Initiative | Planned cost | Evidence represented in this fictional example |
|---|---|---|
| Pricing discipline | $360k | Signed rate changes and billed revenue, compared with the agreed baseline. |
| Delivery utilization | $520k | Paid delivery hours and payroll reconciled to project contribution. |
| Vendor consolidation | $320k | Invoices at contracted rates, normalized for purchase volume. |
No underlying client records are provided. These are illustrative closed-period inputs, not independently verified business results.
05 · Board discussion
Three issues. Three decisions.
Illustrative management recommendations
Next review: October 2026 close
01 / Restore margin
$720k EBITDA shortfall
Issue. September margin was 12.6% against 16.0% planned; delivery labor was $440k over the volume-adjusted budget.
Management action. COO and Commercial lead to review staffing, utilization, pricing exceptions, and contribution by customer weekly.
Decision requested. Gate net new delivery hires until margin exceeds 14% for two consecutive months, with exceptions supported by contracted demand.
02 / Protect liquidity
$4.01M collection opportunity
Issue. Receivable days are 42 against a 35-day target. Base December cash is $6.00M above the $8M floor.
Management action. CFO to assign owners to aged balances and review a weekly cash forecast; confirm undrawn capacity before relying on it.
Decision requested. Retain the $8M minimum cash floor and keep revolver capacity available; no additional borrowing is modeled.
03 / Reset execution
$2.36M net benefit gap
Issue. Initiatives delivered $4.12M after costs, against $6.48M planned. Utilization is the largest net gap at $1.00M.
Management action. Each owner to rebaseline remaining milestones and provide evidence of realized benefits and costs to achieve.
Decision requested. Require a 30-day utilization recovery plan before approving incremental implementation spend; keep unproven benefits out of reported results.
Definitions and reporting limits
- Closed actuals cover September 2026 and January–September 2026. Actuals do not change when the Q4 outlook changes. Each scenario is a discrete illustrative operating case, not a probability-weighted forecast.
- EBITDA is revenue less delivery costs and overhead, before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. September revenue variance comprises $600k volume and $200k price/mix. Volume carries a 40% contribution margin; labor is measured against the volume-adjusted budget.
- Gross leverage at September close uses $96M gross debt divided by $30.16M EBITDA over October 2025–September 2026. The December forecast uses $94.80M debt divided by January–December 2026 EBITDA, combining nine actual and three forecast months. No cash netting, synergies, or addbacks; leverage is not meaningful when EBITDA is zero or negative.
- September cash reconciles from $15.20M opening cash. Q4 cash starts at the September close and includes the selected EBITDA, receivable, and payable movements plus $2.16M interest, $1.32M cash taxes, $2.04M capex, and $1.20M debt amortization. Cash taxes and interest are fixed timing assumptions across the three cases. No further revolver draws are automatic.
- Cash is unrestricted. Revolver availability is the $16M facility less $4M drawn. No borrowing-base or covenant restrictions are modeled. Liquidity includes undrawn credit and must not be confused with cash on hand.
- Receivable days = $24.08M receivables ÷ September revenue × 30. Potential collections above the 35-day target are illustrative, not an additional forecast cash receipt. The Q4 forecast includes only the specified receivable movement.
- Initiative gross benefits and expensed costs to achieve are fictional closed-period amounts against an agreed counterfactual. Net benefits are already reflected in reported earnings and are not additive to the bridge. Planned costs total $1.20M; actual costs total $1.32M.
- The example excludes a full balance sheet, acquisitions, restricted cash, detailed tax and interest schedules, and legal covenant testing. Figures are in USD; export provides unrounded values. Built with AI assistance.